“It’s just, we don’t want people to latch onto one specific computer model and think that’s a forecast. “Everyone can be a meteorologist nowadays, and I love that,” said Lauren Rautenkranz, a meteorologist at First Coast News in Jacksonville, Fla. ![]() And they can lead other viewers to then complain to local forecasters, many of whom see responding to their audience as part of their job description. The pros have a nickname for the posters: social mediarologist. In the absence of a surefire track for the storm, some amateur forecasters are sharing misleading information online, sometimes by posting an especially severe model as if it were a definitive prediction. 24, when it was a nameless tropical depression. Some hobbyists have been following Dorian practically since it formed about 800 miles southeast of Barbados on Aug. Brennan added: “The limitations of the science run up against the demands of society.” ![]() “You get the same questions a million different ways.” “It’s like being a witness in a trial,” Mr. ![]() They are dealing with probabilities but their viewers want precise answers to the same two questions: How bad will Hurricane Dorian be, and where will it head? “It used to be, ‘Hey, I heard there’s a storm out there,’ and now it’s like, ‘What’s that cloud doing coming off of Africa?’” said Chris Smith, a meteorologist at the NBC affiliate in Panama City Beach, Fla.įorecasters are working overtime to keep up with the intense demand for storm details, peeking at briefings while they feed their children breakfast and recording updates even when they are off the clock. Only a few years ago, residents might have not even known a storm existed until it was close to landfall, but now they are watching formations in the Atlantic Ocean and scouring the internet for raw storm data. With so little clarity, viewers armed with radar images, hurricane models and air pressure numbers are marching onto the Facebook and Twitter pages of forecasters’ stations and demanding more precise information, challenging their predictions and sometimes even accusing them of misleading the public. Brennan said, as it is more susceptible to the topography of the land it passes over and even thunderstorms in its berth, posing a challenge to forecasters hundreds of miles away. That means Hurricane Dorian may move more erratically, Mr. The jet streams that push hurricanes toward their destinations are relatively weak in this case, said Mike Brennan, who leads the Hurricane Specialist Unit at the National Hurricane Center in Miami. Forecasters revised their estimated arrival time, saying its center may drift along Florida’s coast - rather than running inland - and significantly weaken before hitting land in Georgia or South Carolina as late as Thursday. One of Dorian’s possible targets on the US mainland is Jacksonville, Florida.Meteorologists have been surprised by the slow pace of Dorian, which swelled into a Category 4 storm on Friday night. “Every Florida resident should have seven days of supplies, including food, water and medicine, and should have a plan in case of disaster.” DeSantis said in declaring the state of emergency. “It’s important for Floridians on the East Coast to monitor this storm closely,” Gov. The Florida Department of Emergency Management on Wednesday said residents should have seven days of supplies ahead of the storm and provided a supply kit checklist. ![]() “This rainfall may cause life-threatening flash floods,” the hurricane center said. Regardless of what you call Dorian, it could deluge parts of the coastal US Southeast with 4 to 8 inches of rain, and up to 10 inches in isolated areas, the National Hurricane Center said. If Dorian reaches the US mainland as a Category 3 hurricane, it would hurl winds stronger than 111 mph. It could become a Category 2 hurricane if those winds reach 96 to 110 mph. “Dorian is forecast to strengthen and become a powerful hurricane during the next few days over the Atlantic waters,” the National Hurricane Center said Wednesday afternoon.ĭorian is now a Category 1 hurricane, meaning its maximum sustained winds are between 74 and 95 mph. CNNĭorian is set to hit Puerto Rico on the same coast destroyed by Hurricane Maria A satellite image shows Tropical Storm Dorian shortly before 2 p.m.
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